Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Possible New Iran Deal?

One reason I try not to post too much about Iran, other than blockade consequences, is that the level of bullshit flying around is so high, and it’s so hard to predict Trump. (He’s declared there was a deal over twenty times.)

However, this seems worth noting: Trump reposting Iran’s foreign minister:

Whether this will lead anywhere? Damned if I know. If I had to guess Trump’s threats to take Karch Island led to the military explaining to him that taking an island that is under artillery, missile and drone superiority by Iran, in a waterway which is mined, with the Iranians still having subs and plenty of speedboats left is a suicide mission.

But that’s just a guess, and probably wrong, since it assumes rationality.

I stumbled upon this graphic, it’s not quite right (the guy on the other side of Khameini is also alive) but it gives a sense of the scale of the leadership turnover in Iran:

Fundamentally the entire senior leadership of Iran was wiped out. The irony is that they were much less hawkish and far less willing to use force than the current bunch. Westerners (Israelis included) just cannot get thru their heads that assassination doesn’t work against functional organizations and societies. The leaders are simply replaced, often with more effective people.

Anyway, I hope there’s a deal that opens the Strait because I don’t want my food prices to double.

We’ll see.

(We’ll return to the “Freedom” series soon, probably with a discussion of Violence and Freedom.)

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

No Eyesight, No Blogging

~by Sean Paul Kelley

My Dr. gave me the wrong blood presure meds. One type blocks a hormone, another type halts it creation. I need the meds that block the hormone, not halt it. Without it my eyes turn into a mess. It is a very rare side-effect.

I woke up Saturday morning and could not focus my eyes on a damn thing—I could not count my fingers, had I not known they were there, of course.

It was quite worrying. So, I called Docs message service. She called back with instructions: stop taking the meds. Come see me Monday. Had to weight wait a minute for an opthmalology appt. which was early today. Great news: all will be back to normal in a few more days.

And my blood pressure is fine.

Can I just add how unsettling it is when the world is one giant blur of color? Not being able to focus sucks.

And the Iran War is back ON!

Well, the “ceasefire” sucked while it lasted, but the war will suck more. Multiple US attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against US bases. America hit water supply in some minor Iranian cities as well. We’ll see if it’s a brief spam or a full on resumption of war.

I suppose this was inevitable. Trump isn’t feeling enough pain, because Americans aren’t transmitting it to him yet. There’s been a lot of work on keeping gas prices low, at the cost of actual shortages starting in about a month to two months, and Trump won’t sign any deal Iran will accept, nor will he reign in Israel in Lebanon, which Iran apparently does actually see as a bottom line demand.

This is you going to hurt most of readers if it continues. A LOT. The Iranians have stated they’ll hit oil harder this time, and the world is already on the brink. The economic tsunamin coming will be unlike anything seen since the oil shocks, without the ability to simply “pay up” since the actual infrastructure will take years to rebuild.

This is shit-crazy. Absolute disconnect between elite interests (where they just raise prices) and the interests of 90% of the world’s population. We are talking famines in many countries, people going hungry even in the first world, lots of basic goods in short supply (for example most pills use hydrocrarbons and then there are plastic shortages, chip shortages, etc, etc…)

The bottom line remains that the US can’t actually beat Iran, since it can’t take out their missiles. So this is just a question of who can take the pain longer and whose military supplies will last longer, and my money is still that the US and Israel run out of interceptors before Iran runs out of missiles.

We’ll see if Iran stops playing around. I’d personally send some ranging missiles near the Israeli desalination plants, then suggest that as an indication of good faith half the Iranian money seized by the US be sent within 48 hours. If not, take out a plant. Ask again, this time 55%.

Iran needs to indicate that it can actually destroy Israel (which it can) and that it’s willing to do so because it seems like Israel is making all the actual decisions.

We’ll see how this plays out. Meanwhile, if you can, stock up on basic staples. You’ll be grateful you did.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

AI: Make Them Stupid, Then Sell Them Brains

The evidence on AI’s effect on those who use it has been coming in, and it’s not good. While it doesn’t effect everyone, it seems to effect most people, and the worst affected, it seems, are the young. Olds have the advantage of growing up in world where they had to learn how to do things themselves. To be sure, phones and social media seem to have had a negative effect on attention span and learning ability, but AI is yet another assault, and it hits the young hardest.

This excerpt comes from a larger piece from a university professor on the inability of his students to read. The whole thing is worth reading, and the decline is truly precipitous: fundamentally most of them can’t read an entire book, and struggle even with long articles, and they can’t pull out the arguments made. The bit on AI follows:

Another reason for the decline in student reading capability is increasing reliance on generative AI. In June 2025, Nataliya Kosmyna and colleagues at the MIT Media Lab released a preprint titled “Your Brain on ChatGPT.” They divided 54 participants into three groups writing SAT-style essays — one using ChatGPT, the second group using a search engine, the last group using nothing — and monitored brain activity with a 32-channel EEG. The ChatGPT group showed the lowest neural connectivity of the three, with up to 55 percent reduced connectivity compared with the brain-only group, and “consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels.” Eighty-three percent of LLM users could not quote a single line from essays they had written minutes earlier. When the LLM group was forced to write without AI in a follow-up session, their brain activity did not bounce back to baseline; the researchers coined the term “cognitive debt” for the lingering deficit.

The fundamental strategy of a lot of tech startups has been to degrade pre-existing infrastructure by under-pricing, for years if necessary, until the old methods are so diminished that they can start charging monopoly pricing. Uber is the classic example: Ubers were far cheaper than taxis for about a decade. Now they’re often more expensive, if the taxis exist at all. Certainly where I live in Toronto, the Taxis did somewhat survive, and cost less.

But overall the strategy was a success, taxi companies were devastated and Uber’s doing great now. All it took was years of losses and predatory pricing: their model wasn’t superior, their product wasn’t superior except having a good app, but they had far more access to patient money, willing to take losses for years to get to the oligopoly pricing end-state.

Neither Anthropic nor Open AI are remotely profitable. Every single query costs more to run than is charged, even to paying clients. A recent increase in prices, still far below running costs, has hit users with massive bills. There’s no evidence AI is better than humans at most tasks, and the real cost (and sometimes, even subsidized, the current subsidized price) is higher than just having employees. AI is often faster, but it makes mistakes humans don’t, and needs to be checked.

But if you make your employees use it they’re going to be degraded and lose the ability to do their jobs well. The more you do something, the more your body and brain optimize for it. The less you do it, the worse you get.

AI’s strategy for replacing workers is threefold: first, sell executives on getting rid of pesky workers for AI, because it’s supposedly easier to manage.

Second: Subsidize while companies lay off the workers and replace them with AI. Once the workers are gone, jack up prices; and,

Third: by encouraging companies to force workers to use AI and to replace workers with AI in some cases, make the workers less capable: stupider. Over time as more and more people become dependent on AI to think and work for them, they will lose the ability to do the work themselves. AI may be shitty, but it will be better than the dullards AI makes its users into.

It’s an ingenious strategy, really. Make people stupid, and replace them with a product which costs more and is inferior to them for most tasks before they were made stupid.

The longer term issue will be that AI isn’t creative: it uses the embodied creativity of past humans, in terms of their writing and their discoveries to simulate intelligence. But as humans produce less and less new creative work, AI will be reduced to eating its own results, and indications are that leads to model collapse: AI’s are dependent on human, and by making humans redundant and stupid they will themselves become stupider and less effective over time.

We live in a time where we can’t look ahead, ever, at technology and make even the smallest effort to control the end results, it seem. At least in the West. Or, rather, we refuse to deal with obvious negative issues if doing so means a few people won’t be able to get as filthy rich.

Dumb.

And soon we’ll be even dumber.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

What the Wounds Are Telling Us

What the Wounds Are Telling Us

by Door Maud Effting and Willem Feenstra, 13 September 2025 [de Volkskrant at volkskrant.nl]

“Doctors in Gaza observed a disturbing pattern: children with a single gunshot wound to the head or chest, a sign that they had been deliberately targeted. This emerges from research by de Volkskrant, which spoke with the doctors who are among the last international eyewitnesses.”

 

[De Volkskrant, via Naked Capitalism 06-08-2026]

This Dutch compilation of eyewitness accounts from doctors who voluntarily served in Palestinian hospitals in Gaza was published in September last year. It has been awarded the European Press Prize for 2026. Conor Gallagher linked to it this morning in Naked Capitalism.

Be warned: it is brutal and ugly. Try to force yourself to read through it entirely.

What the Wounds Are Telling Us

Iran HIts Israel Over Lebanese Attacks

Since the ceasefire started, Iran has said that both it and any peace agreement must include Lebanon. America agreed, Israel didn’t, and the invasion of Lebanon has continued.

Yesterday Iran lost its patience and hit Israel. Israel responded. One set from each side.

For now.

But Iran has said that if Israel keeps attacking Lebanon, Iran will attack again, and much harder.

And more interestingly, Ansar Allah (the Yemeni Houthis) have closed their strait to Israeli traffic. This isn’t a full closure, but it could wind up as one.

I think it’s important to understand a bit of the psychology here: the people in charge before the war didn’t have strong emotional ties to Hezbollah. Old men. But a lot of the people now in charge do, they were personally involved in setting up Hezbollah. They trained Hezbollah. Some of them fought with Hezbollah.

There are strong self-interest reasons for Iran to want to keep Hezbollah strong, which means Israel out of Southern Lebanon. But there are also emotional ties and those matter, because Iran has to be willing to take hits to Iran if it wants to really help Hezbollah.

Of course one attack doesn’t mean much, what will matter is if Iran meant it when they said that if Israel keeps attacking Lebanon (which it will), they will attack again, and next time with much more force.

Threats that aren’t promises don’t mean much. Still, this attack has shown that Iran wasn’t just willing to walk away from Lebanon. They weren’t just spewing words when they said that any peace deal had to include both Lebanon (really, Hezbollah, since the central government is actually willing to let Israel occupy Southern Lebanon, since it’s full of Shi’a Muslims, and the government doesn’t include Muslims), and Iran.

Some people are saying that Trump needs to reign in Israel. That’s… sort of true. But I think what’s happening is simpler: Iran has recognized that America won’t rein in Israel, so Iran must establish deterrence over Israel as well as America. And that means hitting Israel.

Probably they should next send some ranging shots near Israel’s desalination plants, or their big nuclear reactor.

We’ll see how this plays out. Trump’s going to be under increasing pressure. I estimate that some shelves in America are going to be bare in about two to three months, as diesel for shipping to stores runs out in parts of the country. Prices will keep going up. Polling for the mid-terms will keep getting worse, and while Billionaires are so far using this as a profit taking opportunity, the cascade thru the supply chains is going to mean that soon things they care about are going to go up in price, or simply become unavailable: plastics, for example and chips, which require helium.

I don’t know how this will play out, because it depends on the psychology of a few key decision makers; it depends on what the hold Israel has on Trump is; it depends on if lawmakers are more scared of the Israli lobby than polls; and it depends on Iranian leadership’s pain tolerance and how much China is willing to keep supporting their economy.

That’s a lot of variables, and most of them are variable related to leadership decisions among people I don’t know very well.

People in leadership matter. When Israel jerked Kissinger’s chain in the 70s , he convinced Nixon to halt weapon shipments to Israel until they came to heel. But Israel’s lobby was weaker then and Kissinger and Nixon were both hard men: actual “alphas”. Actually dominant. Not pussies. Trump is a classic weak bully who folds under real pressure. They weren’t.

The bottom line, though, is simple. Iran beat America. Now it has to defeat Israel. If it can’t, or won’t, Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah as screwed.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 07, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 07, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

Does Iran Have a Nuclear Way to Stop the War?

Thomas Neuburger, June 04, 2026 [God’s Spies]

I’m writing about a striking but unverified report by journalist Pepe Escobar:

Iran wants to end the war now, and is willing to detonate a nuclear device on Iranian soil to do it.

Is this statement true? I don’t know, but the answer could come rather soon. Would it work if they carried it out? I think, absolutely it would. If Iran said, “FAFO. We’re now North Korea,” Israel would know they face their own demise if they fight Iran now. Time for the new reality to finally take hold….

 

The First Real Legal Challenge To Trump’s Iran War

David Sirota, June 03, 2026 [The Lever]

For the first time since the start of the Iran war, Congress has attempted to circumvent President Donald Trump and end the conflict without his approval. In the process, lawmakers took a step toward creating conditions for a first-of-its-kind legal showdown clarifying the legislative branch’s constitutional authorities under the long-standing War Powers Resolution.

On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled U.S. House passed a measure ordering the president to “remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Notably, the legislation was a so-called “concurrent resolution,” which is only required to pass both the House and Senate — and is not subject to presidential veto. Under the text of the 1973 War Powers Resolution, only a concurrent resolution is required to end a war — though the authority of that text remains in dispute.

As recounted in a new episode of The Lever’s podcast Master Plan, this particular power has never been tested at the Supreme Court….

 

National Security Expert Joe Cirincione delivers the truth about Iran war that corporate media is afraid to say: Trump lost this war. Period.

Dean Obeidallah, June 03, 2026

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Mullin Says DHS Would Obey Courts If They Were Not “Politicized” 

[Truthout, via Naked Capitalism 06-04-2026]

…cWhen questioning Mullin directly, [Senator Chris] Murphy asked, “Can you commit to us that if a court judges something ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] is doing, something DHS is doing as illegal or unconstitutional, [and] tells you to stop, that you will comply with the court order?”

Mullin refused to answer directly, saying, “I will tell you that we will never break the constitution, and we’re not going to break the law, but we’re going to enforce the nation’s laws. We’re gonna enforce the laws that you guys passed, and that we implement.”

Murphy responded, “But that doesn’t sound like the same thing as committing that you will obey a court order…. I mean, I think it’s an easy thing to say. Will you or will you not implement court orders?”

“If we didn’t think courts were politicized, then I would probably be able to answer that,” Mullin said. “But we see courts over and over again that use their bench for their political opinion, not just the rule of law.”

“So you’ll pick and choose which court orders you obey based upon whether you believe that appointee to have a political agenda?” Murphy said.

“Don’t put words in my mouth,” Mullin responded.

Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana’s line of questioning took an entirely different tone, essentially praising DHS and ICE. Kennedy claimed in his questions that former President Joe Biden “ignored the immigration laws” with the “encouragement” of some members of Congress, to which Mullin agreed.

Kennedy said that Democrats “believe in open borders,” to which Mullin added that it’s difficult to understand why Democrats “would allow that many people to come in and turn our streets into lawless cities and lawless towns.”

In reality, Biden deported some 4 million people from the U.S. during his tenure, and followed in the footsteps of Donald Trump’s first presidency rather than breaking from it. He also increased funding for ICE and helped expand ICE programs…..

 

Team Trump Under ‘Maximum’ Pressure to Jail More of His Foes

Asawin Suebsaeng, Jun 04, 2026 [Zeteo]

…In today’s ‘First Draft,’ we take a look at other parts of the U.S. government that Trump and his White House are coaxing with a very simple message: the boss will be monumentally livid at you if you don’t get very serious – very soon – about jailing his political enemies….

Two months ago, Donald Trump fired then-Attorney General Pam Bondi, because she wasn’t corrupt or zealously authoritarian enough for his liking. With her fall rose the acting AG, Todd Blanche, yet another of Trump’s former personal lawyers turned federalized hatchetmen. Off the bat, the Trump White House, including the president himself, made something clear to Blanche in private discussions, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Whistleblower says DOGE sought to have 2.7 million living people declared dead to pressure immigrants into self-deportation

[Washington Post, via Drop Site Daily: June 5, 2026]

A former senior Social Security Administration official has disclosed in a whistleblower complaint to Senate investigators that DOGE officials sought to have 2.7 million living people, including U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents, added to the agency’s Death Master File as part of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement strategy, the Washington Post reported Thursday. Jeremiah Schofield, who spent 25 years at the agency, said he refused to implement the plan after sampling 25 names from the list and finding all were alive, and that a DOGE official confirmed on a speakerphone call that the goal was to force immigrants to self-deport or show up at Social Security offices where they could be arrested. The Social Security Administration said the plan was never carried out, though the Post previously reported that a smaller version—marking 6,100 immigrants as dead—was implemented last year.

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