Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

The Only Thing That Matters Is Winning Primaries

From Stoller:

Last night, something happened that I’ve never seen in my time in politics – a bunch of Democratic incumbent politicians in New York and Maryland lost to left-wing challengers. New York in particular has an intensely wired Democratic machine, with advocacy groups, unions, and identity rights groups cemented together with big money. This machine rarely loses, and never loses en masse. Yesterday, they did, as voters said no to the entire political establishment.

The winners mostly ran on a platform of opposition to the U.S. alliance with Israel, as well as subordinate themes like opposition to corporate greed. For instance, Antonio Reynoso, the Brooklyn borough president and a well-respected establishment figure with virtually every endorsement possible from both liberal groups and real estate interests, lost to Democratic Socialist Claire Valdez by more than 25 percentage points. Adriano Espaillat, the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, was unseated by fellow DSA member Darializa Avila Chevalier. State assembly incumbents lost, and both the state and Federal delegation are now far more progressive.

The New York machine, in other words, got wrecked.

I came out of the netroots: the blogosphere. We had a motto “more and better democrats” but every time we tried to primary some shitheel Democrat, we got wrecked.

We didn’t have the juice.

And in American politics the most important thing is whether you can win primaries. In a duopoly, even if your candidate loses the general this time, they’ll eventually back into power if the district is competitive. If it’s not competitive, and the party you can win elections in is the shoe in, well, it’s the same as winning the election.

The reason the populist right has been pandered to by Republicans on many issues (but not corporate governance) is that they can win primaries.

The reason Kathy Hochui kept her implicit deal with Mamdani and has given him money for New York and other help is that Mamdani is a powerhouse and a bellweather. Opposing him would mean he and the movement he is the standard bearer for would have come for her next.

This is localized so far, but if it spreads the Democratic party will change. And unlike the Republican right, which can be bought off with culture war bullshit, this a left wing populist movement which is explicitly anti-oligarchy. Mamdani has been very successful so far, coming thru on many of his promises. I recently saw someone earning six figures say that Mamdani’s childcare plan had saved him 30K. That’s not chump change and it dwarfs anything the well off, but not rich, will lose from Mamdani’s other changes. In other words the 80% to 95% benefit, as does everyone under 80%.

That is one one hell of a big coalition.

Democrats and Republicans, since Reagan, have largely refused to compete on doing things for ordinary Americans: at least anything pocket book related. The competition has all been kabuki, symbolic gestures or cultural red meat. Some of it has really hurt people, to be sure (abortion bans for example) but overall the idea has been that money should be given to the rich and programs which help ordinary people’s finances are a no go.

Since the US is a duopoly and you only get to vote for two options, neither of which intend to help, the only solution was to change the nature of one of the parties.

That has now begun. How far it will go and whether it will succeed, I do not know.

I do know that if it does, the Democrats will rule for another 50 years, like they did from 32 to 80. Republicans will get in sometimes, but they will be like Eisenhower: ruling in a populist left fashion. The mirror of Clinton or Obama, who in most respects might as well have been Republicans. They were certainly arch-neoliberals.

This is your moment of actual hope. Not the fake Obama stuff, the real thing. It’s not certain, of course, there is a ton of power opposing it, but it is real hope.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Can Europe Win A War With Russia?

European elites appear to be preparing for war with Russia. Lots of new military spending, lots of anti-Russia rhetoric, willingness to let Ukraine launch drones from their territory and plenty of provocations like seizing tankers. They’re pretty open about preparing for war.

So, can they win such a war, starting in say 2030?

On paper it shouldn’t be much of a contest. Europe’s GDP is about 8x larger and its population is 3x larger. In principle, Russia should be smoked. Nor does history support “you can never beat Russia”, Germany lost in WWII, yes, but it won in World War one, nor was all of Europe fighting with it.

I’m gong to keep this simple. It isn’t GDP that matters, it’s resources and the ability to turn them into war materials, plus the willingness of the population to fight and die in large numbers.

Right now Russia alone produces more of the type of armaments that matter than all of Europe. Missiles, artillery, drones, glide bombs and so on. It has more oil and more minerals. It does have less population, but Russia’s historically been willing to absorb massive losses to defend the motherland.

Then we come to allies: Europe might have America, Russia might have China.

China is stronger. A lot stronger. Everything that Russia can’t make itself China can provide. Everything Russia needs that it can’t grow or dig up itself can be sent thru China to Russia from China’s African and Asian allies and there is no way for either the US or Europe to intercept all of that.

Nor is there any possibility that China will let Russia lose in any big way to Europe. Europe wants Russia broken up and subordinate to America and Europe. That would be an existential threat to China, and they know it. America can lose Europe and it will suck, but it isn’t existential.

This is how I predicted that Western sanctions would not work on Russia. I predicted it when the war started. Again, because everything Russia needed they could either produce themselves or get from China and even then Western elites were clear that the idea was to break up Russia and that China was the ultimate enemy.

The Chinese would have to be morons not to give Russia whatever support they needed, and unlike the West, China is not ruled by idiots or fools.

Europe can fight a very nasty war with Russia which wrecks both of them. But it can’t win in any meaningful fashion. European elites selling war or genuinely planning on war are either liars or fools or both. Europe’s problems cannot be fixed by war. Keynesian war stimulus will not fix their economic problems which are a result of the fact that they’re falling behind technologically and losing their industry to high input costs, including energy. They have less and less manufactured goods to sell to the rest of the world, can’t force the rest of the world to give them what they want or sell it below cost any more, and have no significant natural resources to sell to the rest of the world. Nor are they big leaders culturally any more, especially as China’s cultural sector takes on the standard great power glow—tons of money and people to work on it, and it must be great because China is great.

If Europe fights a real war with Russia all it will do is drive itself into the ground so it can go back to what it was for most of history: a barbaric backwater irrelevant to most of the rest of the world.

They need to fix their society and economy, and starting wars they can no longer win won’t do that.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Freedom And Power (Freedom Series #4)

Power Comes from the Barrel of a Gun

-Mao

This is part 4 of our Freedom Series. If you missed them, part 1 (Capitalism and Freedom),Part 2 (Freedom And Democracy) and Part 3 (Freedom To, Freedom From) are also available.

In our earlier essays we discussed how the structure of modern life means that we spend most of our time doing what other people tell us to: either in school or work. We are free to choose our masters, but almost none of us are free from having masters. Representative democracy, especially under capitalism tends to really be oligarchy: those with wealth buy the government, and an individual’s vote means much less than the money and votes and influence it can buy that capitalists have.

All of this is underwritten by violence. I live in Canada, some years back a homeless person built themselves a house near town, but on land owned by no one, except the government. You would think this is a good thing, but it wasn’t properly permitted and the land wasn’t hers, so they tore it down. She went back to being homeless.

They were able to tear it down because if she had resisted, big men with guns would have made sure it was torn down.

I’m no libertarian and I don’t think tax is theft, but if you’re American you may have a big problem with paying taxes because you hate that so much of it is used for corporate subsidies and to support a military which regularly engages in genocidal activities and which supports other countries when they commit genocide. (Israel is not the first.)

You’d think that living in a democracy your money would be spent in some semblance of what the public wants, but you’d be wrong. People don’t want to support Israel with massive subsidies, but it happens anyway.Most Americans would like universal health care, but that would mean less corporate profits, so it doesn’t happen. The infamous Princeton study found that what the average citizen wants has zero relationship to what the government does: but the opinions of those with wealth do.

So you might as well not live in Democracy, because a Democracy where what the people want to happen doesn’t happen, isn’t functionally a democracy, no matter how often you vote. This is at heart of the paradox that when polled as to how democratic their societies are, the major society whose citizens think it’s most democratic is—China.

Wait? A one party state is considered by its own citizens to be democratic? What the hell?

But the Communist Party actually does listen to its citizens and often does what they want. It also strives to make them better off, having lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

You may not get to vote, but the government does a lot of what you want and improves your lives.

Of course it isn’t a democracy by the strict definition: democracy is about procedure—how we choose our leaders, not outcomes

But people might be forgiven for thinking that outcomes matter more. Hell, I can’t argue with it. Democracy exists because monarchies and aristocracies sucked for ordinary citizens and we thought that if we could choose our own leaders they’d be more likely to care for our well-being.

And here’s the thing: the CPC is good right now, or more good than bad. But then so was the US (for its own citizens) at various points, most recently from about 1933 to 79 or so. One can be sure that over time the CPC will devolve or be replaced by something worse. We don’t know exactly when this will happen, but its next sub-ideological cycle is about 40 years out.

This suggests the problem isn’t exactly the form of government.

Perhaps it is, as Thomas Neuberger likes to argue, government itself. Or, more accurately, the state, because every society ever has had some form of government.

States, which started existing about eight thousand years ago, first in Mesopotamia and briefly afterwards in Egypt, are noted for having a monopoly of force as Max Weber famously pointed out. In fact a monopoly of force is what makes a government a state. Your municipal government has a police force, but as Trump has shown with his ICE occupations, it does not have a monopoly on force. Tribes generally don’t have a monopoly on force: individuals often use violence themselves to resolve issues.

The early states were extremely nasty kingdoms, usually with the King either claiming to be a God or saying he was God’s chosen.

But Mao isn’t quite right. Power doesn’t come from guns or swords. It comes from control over the minds of the military class, whoever that is. It took about two thousand years for agriculture to produce the first kingdoms, because the actual task was getting the warriors to agree to be an enforcer class against everyone else, and take the King’s orders. That was a hard ideological task, and it took a long time to convince violent men to oppress everyone but themselves and a few nobles. Tribal warriors simply would not do it. (If you want to read about this process at length, see my Politics Series.)

This is at the heart of the question “will the military fire on citizens?” Will they obey that order?

The answer, usually, is yes. When it’s “maybe” you get more freedom. This is why conscription armies are usually not used for internal control: specialized police forces are used, men trained to beat the shit out of, or shoot, those whom power tells them to.

Most people don’t pay taxes because they want to. They pay taxes because if they don’t men with guns will eventually show up and hurt them, kill them or throw them in a nasty prison.

There are tons of stupid or unjust laws, and we obey most of them, and will obey more of them in the future as ubiquitous surveillance spreads. Oh, some we obey because we agree with them (hopefully things like “don’t murder and don’t rape”) but plenty we obey because we’re scared.

Everything flows from this. Forget law. Remember that woman who wasn’t allowed to keep a house she made with her own hands on land no one was using?

That’s the core. Your boss can’t, usually, call the cops on you. But he can fire you and you might not get another job or not as good a one. You might wind up homeless. You might not be able to afford health care.

And you can’t take care of yourself because it’s illegal. You can’t just go to some land, build a home and plant some crops, say. If someone has way more than they need, and you don’t have enough, you can’t say “Look Elon, if you had a bit less I wouldn’t die homeless so I’m going to just take some of that and you’ll still be more than OK.”

If you do, the police will shoot you or lock you up.

This isn’t the way that it was for most of human existence. Hoarding was not allowed in most societies that ever existed, till those Kings came along. If you tried, the tribe would talk to you, then shun you, and then if you still kept more than you needed while others were going without, they’d either exile you or kill you.

This for hundreds of thousands of years this is probably how humans dealt with hoarders. Then Kings and states inverted it. The rich steal from the poor, the strong from the weak, and if anyone tries to do anything about it they get dead or worse.

Without violence and the state there are no Billionaires. There are no property rights as we understand them (which is why libertarians still want the State to kill people over property. They want to have lots of stuff, be safe when others are poor and they’re rich, they just don’t want to pay for any part of the State except the violent part.

At the end of the day you go to school for twelve years because the state forces parents to send their kids to school. This is the history, when mandatory universal schooling was introduced, parents who didn’t cooperate were dealt with the law, often violently.

You work for someone else at a shitty job you’d never even consider doing if you wouldn’t be homeless otherwise because some people have a lot and don’t want to share. Oh there’s a whole ideology of how capitalism is necessary for prosperity and progress, just as there was one about how Kings were needed, but that’s gloss. There’s way more than enough, but for us to have rich people there must be poor people.

Occasionally a state will, for a few decades, do good. They’re not all evil. See the CPC these days. But the capacity for state control is always there. The CPC forced a lot of peasants off the land who didn’t want to lead. Sure, it was “for their own good” but perhaps the peasants should have been able to decide that? Same thing with the Brits and enclosure. Or America and all the natives they killed.

This is close to the nitty gritty. The stuff about democracy and capitalism was important: but all of that has as its basis violence. Without violent men willing to do what the state says, none of that occurs.

There’s all sorts of arguments that states are better than the alternative, blah, blah, blah. Perhaps. Sometimes.

But the core of states is always violence: that monopoly Weber talked about. That’s how some people get to have a lot more than everyone else and then justify it saying they deserve it. Nobles said it was because they protected the serfs and were chosen by God. Capitalists say it’s because they create the jobs and technology and everything good comes from them so they deserve much, much more. Communists say they serve the people, same as democrats do. And, again, sometimes, for a few decades or even occasionally a whole century, they do. These justifications matter: the violent men need to be convinced to do what the State says.

But the society is still based on coercion underwritten by violent men and you still aren’t free. You are ruled by fear: fear of poverty in a system where if you try and support yourself in a way society doesn’t agree with, that violates property arrangements the elites like, you will be hurt or killed.

This is always true, of course. It was true in tribes. Hoard and eventually someone will do something about it.

But there’s violence to ensure everyone has enough, and there’s violence to ensure some people have more. There’s violence to take away your right to do what you want with your life, so long as it doesn’t harm others, and there’s violence that forces you to spent 60 to 70 years doing what teacher and boss tells you to—or else.

We need to move past the idea that shit systems are the best we can do. We need to conceive of a better way to live together. We need to stop saying “this is a flawed system, but it’s the best we can do.”

We need to dream and imagine. Only by doing so do we make a better, more free, society possible.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

The Great Thing About Britain’s Labour Party Is… Nothing

So, a possible replacement for the execrable Starmer:

Same old, same old. Saw someone mention that the Polish pension is being reduced to age 60, while the British one will start at 69. So I did a bit of research, and in purchasing parity terms the Polish one is larger. British waterways are full of sewage, because they privatized the water companies, which refuse to treat water properly or maintain the plants they bought from the government, but they are paying massive dividends, and that’s what matters. The NHS is in tatters, as it’s the last thing left for the British government to privatize.

And, of course, the UK has been all in on genocide, not just selling the Israelis weapons, but sending ships and planes to actively defend Israel.

Here’s the latest tracking poll:

Well, isn’t that special. This is far worse than I thought, because Labour is still . And that means Britain is extra special doomed. As I have predicted since about 2020, Britain will be the first western nation to fully un-develop. Reform will win the next election. Since they’re conservative idiots they won’t fix anything. Immigrants will get it in the neck, and yes, Britain has brought in too many, but that’s a symptom, not a cause.

So things won’t improve, then Labour will probably get back in and fuck things up some more. Or perhaps the Conservatives.

I had hoped that the Greens would get into second place and the Labour/Conservative duopoly would be broken. Maybe that will still happen, we’ve got a ways to go and I have great confidence in Labour’s ability to run Britain further into the dirt.

But the likely best case is Reform gets four years, then the Greens get in. At that point we’re into the 2030s, and there isn’t much left of the British economy to work with: you’ve got the City (finance) and not much else. Every month I read about some British industrial company being bought out by foreigners, and then they start moving the jobs out.

More likely is that the Greens (or whoever the left wing alternative is) don’t get into power until the mid 2030s. And maybe the Brits will elect Reform, Labour, Reform. They’ve been electing the wrong person and party reliably since 1979 after all.

There’s a lot of ruin in a nation, but it’s not actually infinite, and the Brits have been ruining their nation since 1914 (arguably since 1890.)

All British elites now are is agents for the rich who are looting the remains of what British of past generations built. And there’s almost nothing left to loot.

 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

 

 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 21, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 21, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

US Finally Capitulates with ‘Memorandum’ of Surrender

Simplicius [via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

Iran Enlisted “Senior Psychologists” to Help Craft Messages to Trump Ahead of Agreement

[Jeremy Scahill, June 15, 2026 [DropSite]

… “We added two senior psychologists to the negotiations’ advisory circle so that we can shape messages intended for President Trump from the perspective of managing what we regard as psychopathic behavior pattern,” an Iranian official told Drop Site. He said the psychologists began assisting Iranian negotiators following the initial round of bilateral talks in Islamabad in April as the two sides began exchanging proposed terms for a potential Memorandum of Understanding.

“[Trump’s] reactions have improved noticeably since we began incorporating the recommendations of these advisers into our messages and written communications,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

“Because the exchanged texts will ultimately become part of the historical record, we conduct our negotiations in a manner that ensures the relative weight and sophistication of each party’s negotiating techniques will be evident should these communications be made public in the years ahead,” the official added….

 

The Race for Hypersonic Missiles

[Wall Street Journal, via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

 

The Future of Warfare is Coming Faster Than Most Think

Karl Sanchez [via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

 

Ukraine’s Naval Drone Program: Origins, Development, and the Organizations Behind It 

[Black Mountain Analysis, via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. (No Iran.)

Israel’s Support Is Eroding In the US

A friend pointed out to me that Israel’s support is eroding hard. The elite consensus is shifting. Point in case:

The hard core Zionists will keep opposing this deal, of course, but there are two groups that are shiftable. The first is the one that Tapper belongs to: he’s an authority follower. He’s been hardcore pro-Israel and loathes Muslims, but his first instinct is to follow the leader. Trump’s made a clear turn, and Jake is following.

The second group are those who need administrative favor. Their livelihood or plans depend on the levers the President controls favoring them. They were for Iraq, for Ukraine, etc… but they have no strong ideological commitment, only self-interest.

Trump made a mistake letting hard core Zionists roll up media and social media, but there’s still enough run by self-interested or follow the leader types that if Trump stays solid, the American elite zeitgeist will shift towards his stance. Israel is an ideological commitment, it’s not, for most elites and courtiers, all that involved with making lots of money or being part of the in-group. If the window shifts, they’ll shift with it.

At a fundamental level what happened is that America got itself involved in a war which it couldn’t just walk away from. Losing in Vietnam was embarrassing but really, who cares? Just walk away. Losing in Afghanistan, likewise.

But the Iranians have the West’s balls in a vise and the vise was slowly tightening. Key reserves were way down. Oil at Cushing OK is near historic lows. Distillates are getting scarce. Market manipulation of the price of oil was very successful, but actual physical shortages were on the way, starting in a month or so. (Ironically, price manipulation meant that oil reserves drew down faster than if actual price discovery had been allowed.)

There is a real world, and a real economy and Iran had control of it. The econo-morons talking about how the effect of this has been less than the oil shocks are right when looking at market numbers, but it wasn’t going to stay less and even Trump figured that out.

So the neocons and the hard Zionists will attack, but if Trump had the least concern for the actual economy, he had to make a choice.

Meanwhile Israel is still fighting in Lebanon and the first real battle of the Lebanese invasion is taking place.

Both Hezbollah and Israel are concerned there’ll be a new, actually real ceasefire and Israel is seeking to create facts on the ground. Ali Taher hill is an important strategic objective, giving whoever controls it sight lines for miles around. This is the first large engagement I’m aware of in this invasion where Hezbollah has chosen to stand and fight, instead hitting and fading. (That’s not a criticism. Guerilla warfare makes sense for them.)

And so far they’re doing well, because the Israeli ground forces are actually crap.

The Iranians have not gone to Geneva for the signing or negotiations. They are holding firm on Lebanon. And that means Trump can either rein in the Israelis or the vise starts tightening around America’s balls again.

America cannot win this war. It is impossible. Even using nukes probably wouldn’t work fast enough. That’s why they agreed to a deal that is very pro-Iranian.

That has not changed. They can rein in Israel or cut it loose now, or they can do it in two months when the US is in much more pain, or in 4 months when there are food riots.

There’s a real world. America lost a war that matters. There’s going to be a price for that. If America is smart and not completely controlled by Israel, they’ll pay that price now and if necessary cut Israel lose, because the price will go up every day if the MOU fails.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

 

Vance Is Trying To Thread That Vice Presidential Needle

J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president has often said that his job is to support the president.

He’s also made sure that people know he was against the Iran war, the 12 day war, and so on, with careful leaks. Publicly he’s all pro-whatever Trump says or does, but he’s trying to have it both ways.

The MOU gave him a present, he was able to say that Israel are ungrateful turds who shouldn’t be so violent: nine million people can’t kill their way out of all of their foreign relations troubles, and that Trump is the only major world leader who has supported them (essentially true. In this calculus only Russia, China, Turkey and the US matter.) Israelis turning on Trump are ungrateful. (Well yes, but you didn’t expect people whose idea of making war is to kill children en-masse to have a fine moral sense.)

Anyway, here he is:

Vance has always had a very narrow road to follow. He wants to be President. He can’t directly oppose Trump on anything publicly because even if Trump is driven from office in disgrace, there’s a hard core of primary voters who will never give him up. On the other hand Trump’s becoming increasingly toxic and it’s pretty clear that he’s going to leave office very unpopular.

This issue killed Kamala. She was ahead and doing well. I still remember when she was asked on TV if there was anything she’d have done different than Biden. She said no. And it was at that moment I knew that Trump was going to win: she needed to say something, even something a bit weak “well, I admire what the President has done, but I’d like to have done even more to bring down grocery prices and to end the Gaza war” say.

Vance is attempting to get around this with his loyalty pledge: you support the President even if you disagree, but you can disagree and advise him so be hind the scenes.

He’s hoping that two-step, “I was loyal to Trump, but I would have done some things differently” will keep him electable.

We’ll see. A lot will depend on who Democrats nominate. Democrats rarely select their most popular candidate, they prefer party loyalists who can be expected to keep the corporate pork rolling and not upset important funders like the Israeli lobby.

If Democrats serve up a lukewarm candidate and if Vance makes his turn correctly, he could squeak in as the next President.

Iran MOU update: As predicted the Israelis kept attacking in Lebanon, the Iranians said they wouldn’t go to the signing in Geneva on Friday till the fighting stops, and negotiations won’t start till they do. Israel appears to be attempting to take an important strategic point Ali al-Taher hill. Hezbollah is going all out to stop them. We’ll see if the US is capable (politically, it can easily do so in principle) of discipling Israel. 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

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