Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Is It Better To Be Raped Or Be A Rapist?

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On May 12, 2026

15 Comments

There are a lot of people who believe that in this world you either fuck other people, or get fucked. The world is full of predators, and if you aren’t victimizing someone, you’ll get victimized.

After all, if you hurt someone, that means you’re stronger than them, and mean, and others will be scared of you.

Pretty much how the US, indeed all Empires, operate.

Kill or be killed, this isn’t. If someone attacks you, or someone else, and you kill someone in self defense, well, that’s not the same thing.

Rape’s a good case, because there’s never justification for rape. It’s taking pleasure from someone else’s degradation, and it makes you, well, evil.

I’d argue the same is true of torture. (No, torture doesn’t work for extracting information.)

And then there’s murder. Not self defense, but say joining a military and going and killing a bunch of innocent people. Or, on your own behalf or the behalf of some church or belief or company, killing people. The purest example is certain types of draft: “you kill for us or we kill you.” Perhaps its less than that “kill for us or we throw you in prison” or “kill for us or we impoverish you.”

There are less pure versions. You work for a company which pollutes or poisons or makes products designed for murder. You know (or should know) that people will die because of the pollution. Working for cigarette companies, perhaps. Manufacturers who leach cancerous poisons into the air, water and land. Defense contractors for aggressive countries.

Or perhaps you’re just an abuser. A prison guard, say, in a nation where abuse and what amounts to torture of prisoners is routine.

A propagandist, who provides justification for war and war crimes.

We all make compromises, I think. We all do things to survive we’d rather not do.

But where’s the line?

What is there that you won’t do?

Is it murder? Is it mass murder for your nation? (Don’t pretend that America has had a war of self-defense in generations.) Is it producing harmful products because you need a job? Is it lying about evil to justify it? Is it looking the other way?

I think we all need to decide. Personally if a gun was on me and they said “you rape that person, or you get raped” I hope I’d choose to be raped. I’d rather be a victim than victimizer, at least when it comes to such an abominable act.

Would I join a draft to go kill Iranians and help kill Palestinians? No.

I admire Israelis who go to prison rather than join the IDF.

Muhammad Ali, refusing the draft for Vietnam:

My conscious won’t let me go shoot my brother, or some darker people, or some poor hungry people in the mud for big powerful America. And shoot them for what? They never called me nigger, they never lynched me, they didn’t put no dogs on me, they didn’t rob me of my nationality, rape and kill my mother and father… Shoot them for what? …How can I shoot them, the little poor black people, poor little babies and children and women … Just take me to jail.

 

 

What’s your line? What would you refuse to do even if it meant you’d become a victim?

 

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The Star of David Is Getting the Swastika Treatment

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On May 11, 2026

20 Comments

The Swastika is an ancient symbol. It’s been used for thousand of years. It wasn’t evil, quite the opposite.

Then the Nazis adopted it and if you wear a swastika or have a swastika tattoo, people judge you. Badly.

The Star of David is an ancient symbol of Judaism. Then Israel used it for its flag and engaged in a historically vicious genocide, engaging in rape and torture, all live-streamed.

And so..


As everyone with sense has noted the rise in anti-semitism, such as it is (much measured anti-semitism is fake, since outfits like ADL count people saying “from the river to the sea” or “free Palestine” as anti-semitic) is caused by Israel saying it’s the only Jewish nation and that any criticism of its genocide are anti-semitic.

Well, if Israel = Jewish = Genocide, which is the logic of these statements, then people are going to be anti-semitic.

This isn’t helped by the fact the majority of synagogues raise money for Israel, and many sell stolen Palestinian land and recruit soldiers for the IDF.

There’s also the rising presumption that if someone is Israeli, they’re a war criminal who has probably killed women and children. The majority of casualties in Gaza are women and children, after all, and Israel has a draft. Unless an Israeli wasn’t drafted because of religious exceptions, or went to prison, they’ve been in the IDF and given how Israel makes war they’ve either killed kids, or helped other military members kill kids.

Then there was the time that prison guards were caught on tape raping a prisoner, and the only person charged with a crime was the person who released the video. The guards have become celebrities, going on TV, and there were huge demonstration in their support.

The majority of Israelis appear to be, forgive the word, evil. They approve of rape. They approve of genocide. Most of them have helped kill civilians. (Civilian murder was common long before the straight up genocide, and targeting of children is well documented. Israeli snipers in particular love shooting kids.)

So the Star of David is now a symbol of genocide, like the Swastika. Israeli citizenship means the presumption of actual participation in the murder of civilians, and even if somehow one avoided that, the majority of the population supports the genocide, as well as rape of prisoners.

I’ve never seen a country destroy its reputation so quickly. America, widely hated, took generations to land itself in the garbage heap of world opinion. Israelis have managed it in a few years, and because of their conflation of Israel with Judaism have managed to also smear Jews as a group. I feel for those Jews, and they do exist, who have opposed Israel and Zionism. But as with Germans who opposed Hitler and genocide, they’re going to smeared with everyone else.

In the past I said it would happen, now it has. I personally will not do business or be friends with any Israeli who didn’t refuse the draft, and I won’t be friends with anyone, Jewish or not who is a Zionist. Any politician, journalist or business leader who supported the genocide is dead to me, and what little influence or power I have, for as long as I live, will be used to see them prosecuted for their crimes.

As for Israel, it’s going to have to be de-Zionized. I don’t know how we get there, but the first step is ending US and European support, and the first step to that will be replacing current Zionist leaders and throwing them in prison. All pro-Zionist lobbies will have to be broken up, and their funders and operatives tried for their crimes.

Israel’s not a strong country. It appears strong because of vast support from America and from rich Zionists who have bought political support in America and Europe. If that support ends, Israel is doomed, and that’s the only way they’ll stop committing war crimes, raping and torturing.

Perhaps in a few centuries the Star of David will lose its association with genocide. Till then, if you wear it or display it, people will and should assume that you’re either a war criminal, or support war criminals.

 

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 10, 2026

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On May 10, 2026

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 10, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

Mother’s Day

Heather Cox Richardson, May 10, 2026 [Letters from an American, May 9, 2026]

If you google the history of Mother’s Day, the internet will tell you that Mother’s Day began in 1908 when Anna Jarvis decided to honor her mother. But “Mothers’ Day”—with the apostrophe not in the singular spot, but in the plural—actually started in the 1870s, when the sheer enormity of the death caused by the Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War convinced writer and reformer Julia Ward Howe that women must take control of politics from the men who had permitted such carnage. Mothers’ Day was not designed to encourage people to be nice to their mothers. It was part of women’s effort to gain power to change society….

 

War

Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases

[Financial Times, via The Big Picture, May 05, 2026]

Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March. Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases across the Middle East. The China-Iran axis just became a lot more concrete — and a lot more dangerous.

 

Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show

Evan Hill, Jarrett Ley, Alex Horton, Tara Copp and Dan Lamothe, May 6, 2026 [Washington Post]

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported….

Experts who reviewed The Post’s analysis said the damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected.
“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request. The Post previously revealed how Russia provided Iran with intelligence to target U.S. forces….
Shaun King, May 07, 2026
Satellite images show extensive damage to at least 15 U.S. military sites, with over 225 essential pieces of equipment destroyed — and the American people were never told the full scale of it….

What The Washington Post has now documented is something altogether different: a state adversary damaging U.S. military infrastructure across an entire region. Bahrain. Kuwait. Qatar. Saudi Arabia. Jordan. The United Arab Emirates. Multiple bases. Multiple categories of targets. Multiple forms of military infrastructure.

That is the point.

Iran did not merely “respond.” Iran demonstrated that the U.S. military footprint across the Middle East is not some invisible, invincible architecture of empire.

It is a map of fixed targets.

 

Demand destruction vs fuel-superseding infrastructure

Cory Doctorow, 04 May 2026) [Pluralistic]

… In starting this stupid, unforgivable war, Trump has vastly accelerated the process of demand destruction. Rather than buying American oil, the whole world has undertaken a simultaneous, rapid, irreversible shift to electrical substitutes for fossil fuel applications, from induction tops to balcony solar to ebikes and EVs:

https://thepolycrisis.org/01-demand-destruction-us-oil-is-not-winning-the-iran-war/

As Solnit writes, Trump’s stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit. In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung is leading the charge to transition the country to renewables, framing fossil fuels as an existential geopolitical risk.

Trump’s demand destruction accelerates Putin’s demand destruction: China and India both increased their energy consumption in 2025 – but reduced their fossil fuel consumption over the same period. In 2025, coal accounted for less than a third of the world’s energy for the first time in modern history. 2025 was the year that solar and wind overtook coal globally.

Meanwhile, Trump and his oil baron buddies keep trying to make fetch happen. On the campaign trail, Trump told the oil industry that if they slipped him a $1b bribe, he would give them anything they wanted, and he’s kept his promise. Trump will let Big Oil drill anywhere they like, from sacred sites like New Mexico’s Chaco Canyon to the Arctic. He’ll even let them take all of Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that banks can see the demand destruction writing on the wall, and they are conspicuously declining to loan the oil companies the money they’d need to get that oil.

Truly, Trump’s a machine for creating stranded assets at scale.

In starting this stupid, unforgivable war, Trump has vastly accelerated the process of demand destruction. Rather than buying American oil, the whole world has undertaken a simultaneous, rapid, irreversible shift to electrical substitutes for fossil fuel applications, from induction tops to balcony solar to ebikes and EVs:

https://thepolycrisis.org/01-demand-destruction-us-oil-is-not-winning-the-iran-war/

As Solnit writes, Trump’s stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit. In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung is leading the charge to transition the country to renewables, framing fossil fuels as an existential geopolitical risk.

Trump’s demand destruction accelerates Putin’s demand destruction: China and India both increased their energy consumption in 2025 – but reduced their fossil fuel consumption over the same period. In 2025, coal accounted for less than a third of the world’s energy for the first time in modern history. 2025 was the year that solar and wind overtook coal globally.

Meanwhile, Trump and his oil baron buddies keep trying to make fetch happen. On the campaign trail, Trump told the oil industry that if they slipped him a $1b bribe, he would give them anything they wanted, and he’s kept his promise. Trump will let Big Oil drill anywhere they like, from sacred sites like New Mexico’s Chaco Canyon to the Arctic. He’ll even let them take all of Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that banks can see the demand destruction writing on the wall, and they are conspicuously declining to loan the oil companies the money they’d need to get that oil.

Truly, Trump’s a machine for creating stranded assets at scale….

 

 

Ukraine’s rapid rise as an anti-drone powerhouse

[New Atlas, via The Big Picture, May 05, 2026]

Necessity makes the best R&D lab. Kyiv’s counter-drone industry now exports back to NATO. In only four years after the Russian invasion, Ukraine went from being a country knocked back on its heels and scrambling for military aid to emerging as a leading provider of battlefield-tested counter-drone expertise and exporter of anti-drone weapons systems. How did this happen? Let’s find out.

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Insane Pre-Crime Strategy Unveiled for Leftist “Extremists” 

Ken Klippenstein [via Naked Capitalism 05-07-2025]

The White House declared war on the American people today, labeling its political opponents as terrorists, including “Left-wing extremists.” The new label also claims that there are “deepening alliances” between “the far-left and Islamists” — or pro-Palestinian protesters.

The language is contained in the White House’s newly released National Counterterrorism Strategy. It is the first National Strategy to be unveiled since 2021, when the Biden administration issued its document. The Strategy identifies the “left-wing,” “anti-Fascists,” “Anarchists” and “radically pro-transgender” ideologies as threats equivalent to jihadi groups like al Qaeda and ISIS, or narco-traffickers.

The Strategy is the brainchild of White House counterterrorism czar Sebastian Gorka, an eccentric figure I have reported on, who last year hinted at terrorism charges being levied for political opponents of the administration. The document makes clear he got his wish. Gorka called the Strategy “my life’s work,” ….

“Counterterrorism” Now Officially Means Targeting Trans People

Sophie Hurwitz, May 8, 2026 [Mother Jones]

On Wednesday, the White House released a new “United States Counterterrorism Strategy,” the first such directive since a 2021 Biden-era memo emphasizing the need to combat white supremacist violence, which has now been scrubbed from the White House website.

Wednesday’s document, masterminded by White House “counterterrorism czar” Sebastian Gorka, does not mention far-right violence at all. It identifies “Violent Left-Wing Extremists, including Anarchists and Anti-Fascists” as a security threat of equal severity to “Legacy Islamist Terrorists” and “Narcoterrorists and Transnational Gangs.” The administration will now apparently “prioritize the rapid identification and neutralization of violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist.

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Open Thread

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On May 9, 2026

23 Comments

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The Law Of Elite Consequences Continues To Demolish America

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On May 8, 2026

23 Comments

There’s a lovely quote in the WSJ that encapsulates everything wrong with America in the last 50 odd years:

Many of the investors, bankers and corporate chieftains who took over the Waldorf and Beverly Hilton this week have become desensitised to President Donald Trump’s whims. The stock market hitting new records, even if investors are attempting to pull tens of billions of dollars from some private funds, has helped those spirits.

Financiers largely brushed off concerns that have dominated conversations on Wall Street in recent months, including the ongoing war with Iran, which has driven up petrol prices across the US and is now dividing policymakers at the Federal Reserve over whether they can eventually cut interest rates.

“Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one high-powered banker posited.

Counterpoint:

Back in 2009 I wrote a post called Essential Insanity, trying to diagnose what was causing American problems. It had three main points: here’s the last one:

The second type is worse, in a sense. When Diamond wrote his book on why societies collapse he came to the conclusion that it occurred when elites weren’t experiencing the same things as the majority of the society–when they were isolated from the problems and challenges the society was facing.

For 30 years, ordinary Americans haven’t had a raise. And despite all the lies, Americans are beginning to get that.

But, for the people in charge, the last thirty years have been absolutely wonderful. Seriously, things haven’t been this good since the 1890’s and the 1920’s. Everyone they know–their families, their mistresses and toyboys, their friends–is doing well. Wall Street paid even larger bonuses for 2007, the year they ran the ship into the shore, than they did in 2006 when their bonuses equalled the raises of 80 million Americans. Multiple CEOs walked away from companies they had bankrupted with golden parachutes in excess of 50 million. And if you can find a senator who isn’t a millionaire, (except maybe Bernie Sanders) you let me know.

Life has been great. The fact that America is physically unhealthy, falling behind technologically, hemorrhaging good jobs, and that ordinary Americans are in debt up to their eyebrows, haven’t seen a raise in 30 years, and live in mortal fear of getting ill–because even if they have insurance, it doesn’t cover the necessary care–means nothing to the decision-making part of America because it hasn’t experienced it. America’s elites are doing fine, thanks. All they can taste or remember is the caviar and champagne they swill to celebrate how wonderful they are and how much they deserve all the money federal policy has given them.

This is the second insanity of the US: The decision making apparatus in the US is disconnected from the results of their decisions. They make sure they get paid, that they’re wealthy, and let the rest of society go to hell. In the end, of course, most of them will find that the money isn’t theirs, and that what they’ve stolen is worth very little if the US has a real financial crisis.

During the Covid pandemic, Western elites got richer. A lot richer. The worse everyone else does, the better they do.

This is the fundamental disconnect in the West: the people who are making the decisions do well no matter how much ordinary people are hurt; no matter how much they weaken their own countries. In fact, it’s worse than that: the worse their countries and citizens are doing, the better they do.

Every disaster is used to allow more looting. Are there oil shortages? Raise prices even more than costs? Food? Same thing. Are some companies going bankrupt? Buying opportunity! Are citizens desperate? Great, they’ll work for less.

Life is good for our elites and the more they destroy our countries, the better life is for them.

Of course they don’t care that Trump is driving America and the West into the dirt? Why should they? They don’t think it effects them. Of course, in time, it will, but they don’t see that or they don’t care: after all India’s richest people live great lives, who cares if India is a corrupt shithole?

So sorry about high gas prices, high food prices, high health care costs and no future for you or your children. None of that matters. Trump’s getting rich being President and so are American elites and in the eternal honest words of George W. Bush “who cares what you think?”

You don’t matter. It’s been 60 years since anyone in power in America cared about America or Americans. Europe’s leaders are about the same.

Suck it up buttercup. Life’s getting worse and no one with the power to change that cares, because they’re doing more than just fine—they’re the richest rich in the history of the world, and life is good.

 

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Iran Has Broken The US Middle East Raj

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On May 7, 2026

14 Comments

It turns out that Trump’s plan to help ships go thru the Strait was ended when both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait refused to let the US use their airspace or US bases in their countries to launch attacks.

The reason is obvious—Iran has repeatedly said that if the war restarts they will hit the Gulf States much harder than before, going after oil infrastructure in particular.

America has proved it can’t protect its Gulf allies. It’s low on interceptors, and what they have goes to Israel. Even with interceptors attacks get thru.

Bases have gone from defending countries to being liabilities. Being American allies drew the Gulf states into a war that devastated them. The Sauds and Kuwaitis have nothing to gain from letting the US launch attacks from their territory. The lesson was painful, but it has been learned.

This also puts an end to the idea that countries can’t deny the US. They just did, as did Spain.

The US Empire is dead. Officially dead. It does not come back from this because the new way of war centered on drones and missiles means that it is impossible for the US to protect its allies.

Likewise the US can no longer guarantee free navigation. This has been obvious for a couple years: if they couldn’t even defeat the Yemenis, they weren’t going to stand a chance against any real nation.

It’s over.

Again this doesn’t mean the US isn’t still a Great power, especially regionally. It can still shove around weak countries which aren’t willing to bear the heavy cost of standing up to it, like Venezuela.

But as time goes by the missiles and drones will spread from China, Russia and Iran to everyone else. Aircraft carriers will be forced way back, reducing sortie tempos, and blockades using ships will become harder and harder. Probably the best way to do a blockade against a far away country will be drone carriers, but even they will be vulnerable to counter-strikes.

This is also going to be a huge problem for the American military industrial complex: their weapons suck. No one is going to want to buy them. The key weapons needed are missiles, drones and air defense and all of those are cheaper and in many cases better from other suppliers.

At this point without data centers the US wouldn’t have essentially zero GDP growth. The stock market is being held up by a few major internet firms who are engaged in a massive circle jerk of financing their customers purchases. Chinese AI is behind American, but 95% cheaper, open source and will converge on the same general abilities, but better for real world tasks involving robots, autonomous vehicles and so on.

If you need to buy something you don’t want to get it from the US. Odds are China has it for less and at least as good, possibly better.

The world doesn’t need American goods. Everyone’s going to move off oil as fast as possible and it’s China that sells that stack. American weapons are crap. American alliances do nothing but give you a nuclear umbrella you can’t trust the US to deploy.  Trade is increasingly moving off the dollar and on to the Yuan, so sanctions will work less and less well and in less than five years will be basically useless except against vassals.

All that will be left is a wasting ability to use a legacy 90s tech military against the weak, and that’s going away too.

The US Empire is cooked. America’s elites were handed one of the strongest hands in history and pissed it all away in three generations. Truly late Roman Empire levels of incompetence.

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American Elites Have Reverse Empire Dysmorphia

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On May 6, 2026

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There’s a clinical diagnosis called body dysmorphia, where people think there’s something wrong with their body when it’s fine. Colloquially, some people refer to “reverse body dysmorphia” where someone thinks their body is better than it is.

In late middle aged men this often exhibits itself as thinking that they’re stronger, tougher and better in a fight than they are, feeling they’re as good as they were when younger. Some find out the hard way they’re wrong, picking a fight they can’t win.

This applies to American elites. They think America is as powerful as it was back during the Gulf War: able to crush opponents. It leads to constant incorrect decisions. The first major one was believing that sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and lead to victory for Ukraine.

The second major error was the second Iranian war. They thought they could easily beat Iran and overthrow its government. Instead all their local bases were smashed, they Strait of Hormuz was closed by the Iranians, their carrier groups forced back, and their one attempted ground action in Iran, to seize Iran’s enriched uranium reserve, was a bloody fiasco.

Since then they’ve tried to escort out ships and retreated. They’ve put on a blockade of the blockade, and Iran hasn’t buckled and Trump in particular keeps spouting on about how Iran is essentially already defeated and eager for a deal even as Iran has repeatedly refused negotiations.

The world economy is shuddering, the price of oil and its distillates are soaring, American farmers can’t afford enough fertilizer and Russia and China turn out to be two of the nations most able to weather the storm.

Woops.

And American elites keep talking like there’s a military solution when there isn’t. They keep talking like Iran lost the six week war, and not them. They keep offering peace terms which amount to “give us what we can’t win on the field of battle”.

They think they’re still America in the 90s. They don’t get that America is about half de-industrialized and that its military is set up to fight wars of the 90s, not modern drone and missile wars.

They have Empire dysmorphia, thinking they’re still in their prime, when they are no longer a hegemonic power, but only a Great Power. They can push around weak nations like Cuba or Venezuela, but not great powers, and Iran is a great power, as they proved by beating the US.

As long as America keep thinking they’re the only big dog, with the possible exception of China, they’re going to keep walking chin first into fights they can’t win, and their collapse is going to accelerate as a result. Their sanctions on China completely backfired and instead of China’s old stance, which was to trade with the US and let it slowly decline, China has pushed on ever tech lead that the West has.

Europe is similar. They don’t get that they aren’t even a Great Power any more. They are just weak, corrupt, sclerotic nations without any significant resources, who even added all together aren’t in the technological race. They’re deindustrializing. And they keep talking tough and making enemies.

Insanity. Sheer insanity.

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America Exports Record 6.4 Million Barrels of Crude

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On May 5, 2026

8 Comments

Today’s headline news chronicles our triumphant, record-breaking petroleum exports: 6.4 million barrels a day. The highest weekly figure ever recorded. On the surface, it appears America may just make up in exports what the closure of the Straits of Hormuz prevents.

On the surface.

The reality of our domestic petroleum situation is more dire. The same week America exported record amounts of crude it quietly drew down its strategic reserve to the tune of 7.1 million barrels a day same week ending April 24. This represents the largest drawdown since 2022.

Let’s do some simmple arithmetic: drawdown strategic reserves by 7.1 mln and export 6.4 mln. Subtract and you get a net loss of 700,000 barrels a week. That’s the burn rate of crude oil. Not slack. Vanishing.

Adding insult to injury, Morgan Stanley reports that gasoline inventories are at their lowest level since well, ever. Yes, ever. By August gasoline reserves will freefall to 198 million barrels. 

In reality, America is facing an unsustainable crude oil burn rate coupled with a completely unsustainable draw down in gasoline reserves. These drawdowns are occurring in the face of perilously high petroleum prices, including gasoline.

But domestic petroleum production, and refining capacity will make up the difference!

What part of unsustainable did you not understand?

For example, the oil refinery on Corpus Christi Bay here in South Texas is effectively off-line because it has no water source. Lake Corpus Christi is dry. No water, no refinery, no gasoline.

To make matters worse, domestic crude production is trending flat to down, even as WTI spot prices are in the $102 range.

Permian Basin rig counts, a leading indicator of what future crude production will look like, are down 15.33% YoY. Oklahoma rig counts are down from 55 last April to 43 today. That’s a -21% decline YoY. New Mexico dropped 3 rigs and Wyoming dumped 1. What about Eagle Ford shale oil you ask? At $102 a barrel shale has to be profitable. True, but there hasn’t been a drilling permit issued in the Eagle Ford basin in three years. None have been filed with the state since the crisis with Iran began. There’s a reason for this. WTI spot prices are $102 a barrel, as I previously noted. Those are spot prices for oil deliverable right this minute. If you go 12 months out on the contract curve to May 2027, the price of WTI Falls to $73 a barrel. At that price shale oil isn’t in the sweet spot. 

Moreover, what the prices in May 2027 are telling policy makers, factory owners, grocery store managers, freight shippers and the like in bright red flashing lights are that a deflationary spiral is a very real possibility.

Here’s where the rubber hits the road: the petroleum and gasoline burn rate will force the Fed’s hand and compel a rate increase to prevent a massive inflationary spike.

But what is the Fed to do six months to a year from now when the looming credit crisis, and housing collapse reach critical mass and unravel, popping the AI bubble the blowoff?

We’re literally exporting our seed corn.

You can’t reap what you don’t sow.

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