Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

(Guest Post) Where Do Racism and Hatred Come From?

Guest post by Whip Randolph

 

[From the One Disease One Cure Newsletter]

Remember that old story “The Emperor’s New Clothes”?

A con man tricks an emperor into believing that he is dressed in beautiful, expensive clothing when, in fact, he is wearing nothing at all. Afraid to be called a fool by this very confident man, the emperor pretends that he really is wearing beautiful clothing, and his close officials go along with it. The emperor then goes out among the public stark naked, and the masses of people pretend to admire his fine clothing. Everybody maintains this pretense until a child blurts out that the emperor is stark naked.

Why would all the adults pretend to believe an obvious falsehood? When I first found this story as a child, it seemed silly! Eventually I learned that this story actually explains one of the major drivers of racism and hatred in the world, including major events happening in the news right now.

So what does The Emperor’s New Clothes have to teach about ignorance, racism, and hatred happening right now?

In this story, the emperor is the ruler, meaning he decides on the laws and how they’re enforced, and he can punish people who express beliefs that he doesn’t like. The people in this story know that, and know that it is safer to believe that he is beautifully addressed, or at least pretend. After all, acknowledging the truth could lead to imprisonment or worse.

It’s simply a common pattern in unhealthy cultures for authorities to punish people for saying uncomfortable truths, and I believe this pattern will continue until we can generate healthy cultures again.

Let’s look at some historical examples to see how this works.

In the US pre-Civil War south, slavery was assumed to be good for the slaves by all right-thinking people. Doctors even had a diagnosis called “Draepetomania” where any slave who tried to escape was believed to have a mental illness! Why would they believe such nonsense, even highly trained doctors, instead of simply recognizing the evils of slavery and acknowledging peoples’ healthy desire to escape?

The answer is simple: any white Americans who acknowledged the evils of slavery were heavily punished. In the slave states, people could be imprisoned for 10 years for having a copy of Uncle Tom’s Cabin, a book that showed slavery in a sympathetic light. Draepetomania represents what I call a blind belief where people believe something because authorities make it the safe or convenient thing to believe, not because it’s true. In other words, it was safe for doctors to believe the runaway slaves had mental illnesses, and it was unsafe to see runaways as healthy and slavery as evil.

Likewise in the Soviet Union and China in the mid 20th century, the government and society were assumed to be great and getting better, so any activists were assumed to have mental illnesses as well. Many activists were arrested and accused of having mental disturbances and sent to prison hospitals where they were treated like the political prisoners they were. These activists were behaving legally and trying to serve their people, and authorities made up theories of mental illness as a cover story to justify imprisoning them.

In this social pattern, authorities punish people for speaking the truth, making it safe and socially acceptable to believe falsehoods. Unfortunately, this can also cause huge amounts of racism and hatred in a society, as people are encouraged to adopt racist or hateful attitudes, and those who don’t are punished.

The Ku Klux Klan was a campaign of paramilitary violence operated by wealthy ex-slaveowners in the US South after the US Civil War. Most Americans know that this violence was directed at black people to scare them into remaining second class citizens. But few know that this campaign also attacked any white people who sympathized with those black people!

In other words, whites who were racist were left alone or even rewarded. Any anti-racist white people risked rape, murder, having their house burned, or other atrocities. I believe this is a major driver of anti-black racism in the US South: authorities wanted that racism to avoid solidarity among poor white and black people, and for centuries they brutally punished any white people who tried to stand for what’s right. Many KKK members were sheriffs and politicians, so the law was part of the problem!

Similar stories abound from unhealthy cultures around the world — that is, societies where a few people rule over everyone else. Nazi Germans and Soviet citizens were each trained by their governments to hate the other side during World War II. Anyone who didn’t hate risked being called a sympathizer and traitor and going to jail. When these authorities wanted war, they propagated hatred among the populace and punished anyone who spoke the truth and refused to hate.

Why did so many Germans learn to hate Jewish people after World War I? Well, the German monarchy, business leaders, and generals had really screwed up and lost World War I. Knowing it was a foregone conclusion, they surrendered before the enemy had crossed into German territory. Unfortunately, they had lied to the German public, and the media contained propaganda which said they were winning the war until the moment they surrendered. Thus many Germans were really confused: why did they surrender if they were winning?

The political, military and business leaders wanted to avoid accountability for losing the war and spreading lies, so they propagated a “stab-in-the-back” narrative, blaming Jews, labor activists, liberals, and others for undermining the country from within.

A tragic number of Germans believed this nonsense, and it wasn’t an accident: propagating hate and ignorance towards Jews and activists and blaming them for Germany’s WWI defeat was a way for the ruling class to avoid accountability for losing the war and lying about it in the news. Tragically this was one step on the road to the Holocaust a few years later.

Racism, hatred, and ignorance can thus be widely propagated by authorities for a variety of reasons. It is confusing to discuss because authorities will punish someone for one secret reason, but publicly accuse them of something different. For example, a Nazi German peace activist may have tried to convince his neighbors that ending WWII would be better for the country, but he’d be arrested and accused of spreading Soviet propaganda and undermining the army. The activist was only trying to speak the truth or share a perspective in service of his people, but he was punished and accused of something different.

The more examples I found like this — where people are punished for acknowledging the truth, or punished for not being racist or hateful in ways that serve the needs of unaccountable ruling classes — the more I saw it play out right in front of me in the news.

Right now, the United States is supporting Israel in its genocide of the Palestinians. Israel has occupied Palestine for decades, keeping Palestinians under intense surveillance. The control was so tight that even many years ago the Israelis were literally counting the calories of food being allowed in to keep the Palestinians at starvation levels, continually a notch above famine.

The Israelis began the genocide in October 2023, with tremendous US support in the form of weapons, surveillance, fuel, political cover at the United Nations, and more. But just how bad has the violence been? Many news stories say that only 40-50,000 Palestinians have died — surely a tragedy, but not a genocide.

Before the present conflict started in October 2023, the Palestinian population was estimated at 2.2 million. When US President Trump took office, he stated the Palestinian population as around 1.7-1.8 million.[1] Other estimates confirm this, using normal techniques to estimate military+civilian casualties in war. So between October 2023 and February 2025, Israelis had killed ~400,000-500,000 people through military violence, famine, disease, and so on while extremely few Israelis have died.

How have the Israeli and American governments trained their population to tolerate and even support this genocide? You guessed it: spreading racist and hateful propaganda towards Palestinians, and punishing anyone who tried to speak the truth and stand up for what’s right.

Many government statements called the Palestinians subhumans deserving immense cruelty. For example, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant said, “We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.” Israelis were trained to see Palestinians as a threat on par with Nazi Germany, rather than victims of a cruel occupation.

In Israel, a school girl expressed sympathy with the Palestinians, saying she hoped they could return to their homes soon. She was suspended from school as other students threatened to burn her house down and the Ministry of Education accused her of “incitement against IDF [Israeli] soldiers.”

In America, we see similar disturbances. Anyone who tries to acknowledge the truth about Israeli aggression towards Palestinians is accused of antisemitism. President Trump is deporting many people for attending what he calls “illegal” protests and accusing universities of tolerating antisemitism for allowing protests against the genocide. This is only an expansion of the policy that his predecessor president Biden started.

And it’s not just the government that tries to scare protesters away from acknowledging the truth: many business leaders are trying to scare people into submission too. One businessman, Kevin O’Leary, went on television and said all activists were being monitored with AI-enabled cameras, and their protesting would be recordered and show up in background checks, and they would never be hired again! In fact, North Carolina outlawed wearing face masks outside just to make this possible.

Just like American slave owners scared poor and middle class white people into hating black people or remaining silent so they wouldn’t oppose slavery, modern day political and corporate leaders are trying to scare us into submission so we won’t oppose their genocide.

Why are Israeli and American government and corporate leaders supporting this genocide? People can only speculate: is it part of a plan for creating a major new west-Asian trade route through Israel? Accessing gas deposits off the Gaza coast? Developing beachfront real estate? All the above, or something else? When unaccountable leaders refuse to speak the truth, it can be difficult to know why they behave as they do.

So let’s take stock: the protests are legal, and the Israeli genocide against Palestine is real, and it’s not antisemitic to point these things out. But a strong coalition of American and Israeli business and political leaders have decided to support this genocide, and they’re punishing people for standing for what’s right by accusing them of antisemitism and using this as a cover story to justify punishing them.

This shows how ancient patterns of nations with rulers (or ruling classes) are playing out again all around us. America may not have a king, but anytime one person or a group can impose law on the rest, and choose how that law is enforced, you wind up with the same kind of tyrrany. This is predictable in any society where people are punished for upholding their own law (because that’s supposedly the police’s job, but of course they have to just follow orders). Ancient Rome, Germany, the Soviet Union, Israel, Canada, communist China, the capitalist United States — all of them have shown this pattern where authorities punish truth-tellers and propagate racism and hatred when it suits them. All these countries are actually dictatorships: cultures where some people dictate the law to everyone else, and everyone else is expected to just accept it.

These stories of selfish rulers contrast vividly with countless of stories of generous servant-leaders of healthy cultures. The Haudenosaunee describe how, when they were able to live in a fully traditional way until the early 1800s, their spiritual leaders were their political leaders, and to become a spiritual leader a person had to give away huge amounts of material goods. In other words, their leaders were the most generous.

Martin Prechtel described a similar pattern with the Tzutujil Mayans of central America. Leaders were expected to never campaign for office — it was up to others to see who should be leader and lift them up, due to their generous service. And each time a leader reached a new level in their hierarchy, they were expected to give away more and more goods, returning to total poverty so that they would be on the same level as the rest of the society. Like the Haudenosaunee, they chose the most generous leaders, the ones most willing to act in service of their people. They maintained this way of life until about 1990, when the Guatamalan military inflicted tremendous violence with American backing.

These stories seemed amazing when I first found them, but they are actually quite normal in societies that maintain a baseline of mutual respect as normal way of life, where everyone stands for what’s right as a normal way of life.

In these kinds of societies, I don’t see racism or hatred. So many problems, including racism, hatred, sexism, pollution, poverty in the midst of abundance, corruption, greed, child abuse, and more are symptoms of the root cultural disease where a few people rule over the rest. Any culture with this disease will show these symptoms, each in its own way. And I believe a single cure could end all these terrible troubles: creating cultures where everyone stands for what’s right, and no one rules over anyone else.

This is the theme of my free book One Disease One Cure. It explores examples of 69 different healthy cultures, including many alive today and others in the recent past, who maintain a baseline of mutual respect internally. They show that humans can live without racism or sexism or hatred. We can live without corruption and greed, with leaders that serve the people instead of selfishly serving themselves. Nations like the Ashaninka, Yequana, Haudenosaunee, Zapatista, Mbuti, traditional Cherokee and Nootka, and many others show that these terrible things are not inevitable. But so long as we remain in unhealthy cultures, with unaccountable rulers who behave extremely selfishly and punish anybody who stands for what’s right, all these terrible troubles will continue.

I will end on a positive note: the nations that make up the Haudenosaunee Confederacy have maintained their healthy culture for over 900 years till the present day, and they did this after experiencing a period of intense warfare 1,000 years ago. The Zapatistas are a collection of many different indigenous cultures in southern North America that experienced oppression for five centuries until 1994, when they rose up in resistance. They didn’t just install a new ruling class, but actually generated a new, sovereign healthy culture where the leaders serve the people, and everyone is expected to stand for what’s right. As but one example of the deep transformation, interviews with many Zapatista women attest to a dramatic decline in sexism.

These stories showed me that we’re not doomed to having unaccountable rulers. It’s possible to have deep change. But in order to do that, we must recognize the root cultural disease, and find a way to cure it: by creating cultures where everyone stands for what’s right, and nobody rules over anybody else.

[1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-gaza-population-relocation-1.7457559

(The book contains citations for all this material, except Trump’s Palestinian population estimate which occurred after publication)

Harvard Decides To Fight And America’s Elite War is ON

So, Trump sent a bunch of demands to Harvard, which basically amounted to “we run this university now.” In the wake of his demand that Columbia submit to a consent decree, Harvard decided to fight and is trying to rally other universities.

This isn’t about free speech or any civil liberties values. Harvard was happily crushing Palestinian protestors. The issue is power: Trump wants to take power away from the people who run it now, and they aren’t willing to give it up.

This comes back to the simplest problem in negotiating with Trump: you can’t actually cut a deal, because he’ll always come back for more. American elites are beginning to realize that they can’t conditionally surrender: they can’t give Trump some stuff and expect to be otherwise left alone.

I think the odds of significant elite opposition are high. They don’t want to, but Trump has backed them into a corner. It’s fight or exit the elites.

This is going to be a nasty fight. Trump’s weaponization of the immigration system and presidential orders, especially dubious presidential control over spending means he has powerful weapons, including the threat of deporting citizens to prison camps for life.

But Trump has moved into “beyond a fuck-up” territory. He’s moved too fast and made too many enemies too fast, both domestically and internationally. He’s turned allies against him, and made everyone scared.

That’s not smart. The rule of purges is to do them fast, yes, but that once you’re done, you’re done. And when you make deals you need to keep them. No one feels safe, but they haven’t given up their power yet.

Worse, Trump is almost certain to lose Congress in the mid-terms. I’ve never seen a President more likely to be impeached, because he has made it “me or you”. Non-Trump aligned elites will go for his throat as soon as they can, and he’s turning a lot of elites who were pro-Trump against him with his “trade” policies.

American elites wanted to give in to Trump, but he’s forced them into a corner, and like the rats they are, they will fight when threatened with loss of their own power.

So buckle in and buckle up, sunshine. It ain’t over till it’s over, and it’s far from over yet.

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

No Food Has Entered Gaza In Fourty-Four Days

I keep seeing headlines about “food insecurity.”

SHUT UP

The word is “starvation”. Starvation. You media weasels.

Now despite what a lot of people think, starvation isn’t fast, and there were some stores, but those stores have run out.

So Israel is deliberately starving something like 1.7 million people, to death.

Meanwhile the only nation in the world trying to stop this is Ansar-Allah (the Houthis). And what is America doing? Sponsoring a ground invasion by the “official government” of Yemen.

The Houthis had no blockade during the ceasefire. When the Israelis announced they would cut off all aid to Gaza, the Houthis said they’d give them two days, then start up the blockade again. Which they did. (Note also that America offered Ansar-Allah an end to all sanctions, recognition and rolling the official government into them if they’d stop the blockade. So the Houthis are doing this at GREAT cost.)

People roll their eyes when Iranians and whatnot call America “the Great Satan” but… seems pretty accurate to me. Helping a genocide, and attacking the only nation in the world trying to stop the genocide.

One can always be “more evil’, but the US is pushing the boundaries here. Israel, of course, has been evil for every second of its existence and the national sport is “how can we be even more evil, while screaming “never again?”

The only good news is that America is speed-running imperial collapse. But even so, it’s likely to come too late for the Palestinians.

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

“The Chief Justice Has Made His Ruling Now Let Him Enforce It”

So, basically, the Supremes ruled 9-0 that Trump had to obey a lower court when they court said to return Abrego Garcia, whom Trump sent to prison in El-Salvador, who is not a gang member as Trump claimed.

This case is wrong in every way:

  • It’s not legal to send someone to another country’s prison;
  • The ICE agent who said the hairdresser was a gang member was kicked off the cops for dishonesty, then got a job with ICE;
  • There was no due process before the hairdresser or any of the other kidnapping victims were sent overseas, many of them are clearly not gang members;
  • ICE is making arrests wearing masks, not showing ID and grabbing people off the street into unmarked vans. Straight up Gestapo shit.

But what’s particularly offensive is that Trump is saying “I can’t get him back” at the same time as El Salvador’s President is claiming “I don’t have the power to return him.”

This is “I’m telling the sun is pink, with blue polka-dots” level bullshit. Everyone knows they’re lying. This, alone, should lead to impeachment, the sheer fucking insult of such an obvious lie. And every newspaper and news show should be leading with “President Lies.”

Next is the simple fact that legality aside, even Trump has admitted the guy is not a gang member and that they made a mistake. Anyone with even the faintest scintilla of decency would arrange for his return.

Assuming there is a “plan” here, and that’s always questionable when dealing with Trump it is obviously to put the President entirely above the law: what he’s doing is illegal, he’s lying to everyone’s face, the Supremes have ruled against him 9-0, and everyone knows he’s punishing an innocent man. His administration has said they want to start deporting citizens in the same way.

“I can do anything I want and you can’t stop me.”

The obvious next play from the judiciary would be contempt rulings and to start locking up administration members for perjury, which would cause an obvious constitutional crisis, but the US is already not a Constitutional Republic at this point. I can’t even count the number of actions Trump has taken which should lead to impeachment. Due process and the first amendment are clearly dead-letter, he’s violating separation of powers repeatedly and his unilateral shutdowns of Congressionally mandated departments and programs are 100% un-Constitutional. He doesn’t have the right to change Congress’s spending decisions that way. Oh, and he’s publicly blackmailing law firms and universities “do what I say or I’ll hurt you.” Publicly bragging about it.

His tariffs are all based on “national security” clauses allowing the President to declare tariffs, which is, again, obviously bullshit, though it’s also true that Congress is entirely complicit, since they could take that power back. (It shouldn’t be possible for one branch to delegate powers to another branch. The founders never intended for the President to be able to declare war, for example.)

But really, it’s the “sky is not blue” lying that is most offensive to me.

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

– George Orwell, 1984

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 13, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

 

‘We’re Not Stopping’: Trump Border Czar Vows to Ignore Judges

[The Daily Beast, via MSN 03-18-2025]

 

Team Trump Is Gaming Out How to Ship U.S. Citizens to El Salvador

Nikki McCann Ramirez, Asawin Suebsaeng, Andrew Perez, April 12, 2025 [Rolling Stone]

Trump said last weekend he would “love” to send American criminals there — and would even be “honored” to, depending on “what the law says.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed this week that the president has discussed this idea privately, too, adding he would only do this “if it’s legal.” ….

The Trump administration is indeed discussing this idea behind the scenes, two sources familiar with the matter confirmed to Rolling Stone. In their most serious form, these conversations have revolved around attempting to denaturalize American citizens and deport them to other countries, including El Salvador….

Shortly after stepping back into office, Trump personally directed at least one lawyer working in his administration to look into deporting American citizens via denaturalization processes, telling aides that it is a “good idea” for certain cases, according to one of the sources, who is a Trump appointee. In one of his many Day One executive orders, Trump instructed his administration to move on cases described in a federal statute regarding “revocation of naturalization.”….

Several of Trump’s most important advisers, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, continue to internally advocate for mass-denaturalization initiatives that they believe were squandered in Trump’s first stint in the Oval Office.
For instance, the sources add, Trump administration officials have discussed possibly denaturalizing and deporting activists and other individuals whom they label as having committed so-called “fraud” on their applications for citizenship by subsequently supporting what Team Trump decides are “pro-terrorist” causes or groups — similar to the specious arguments they’ve made to justify stripping pro-Palestine student activists of their green cards or visas.
According to these sources, Trump administration attorneys and some senior appointees have also discussed potential legal justifications and technicalities they can exploit for denaturalizing citizens who are accused or convicted of certain crimes, especially if the Justice Department or other offices deems their offenses to be gang-related….
Mike Davis, a close Trump ally and a fixture among the MAGA legal elite, tells Rolling Stone, “I have advocated very publicly that if you are a current Hamas supporter and you were naturalized within the last 10 years, the Justice Department should move forward with denaturalization proceedings to get them the hell out of our country. Denaturalization has been on the books for a very long time. If you lie on your citizenship application, denaturalization is a consequence.”
When asked if there is any precedent in the last several decades for this kind of crackdown effort, he replies: “I hope this is groundbreaking. I hope Trump and his team are trail blazers on this. Hamas supporters can go to hell and in the meantime they need to get the hell out of our country.”

Trump’s Horrifying Removal of Man in “Error” Takes an Even Darker Turn

Greg Sargent, April 12, 2025 [The New Republic]

On Thursday, the Supreme Court issued a simple directive to the U.S. government. Or it would have been simple, anyway, if President Donald Trump weren’t engaged in such rampant lawlessness. The high court said the administration should be prepared to say what steps it has taken to bring back Kilmar Abrego Garcia—the Maryland man whom the government itself admits was deported to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador in “error.”

The government still hasn’t answered that basic question. On Friday, the administration refused to honor a judicial order—delivered by a lower court in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling—to provide a response to it….

All along, the administration has had the option of moving to return Abrego Garcia to the United States and then trying again to deport him via conventional legal processes—which, ironically enough, could result in his removal anyway, in a more lawful manner.

Why hasn’t the government taken that simple step? That question is the bigger, darker one underlying this whole saga….

It’s not hard to guess at the administration’s motives here. Bringing Abrego Garcia back to U.S. soil—and then arguing he should again be removed to El Salvador—is a case the administration might lose. Or if the administration sought to remove him to a third country, that would allow Abrego Garcia to challenge that effort.

Either path would unleash an even bigger media spectacle. It would mean more coverage of Abrego Garcia’s marriage to a U.S. citizen and the couple’s autistic child. It would mean more attention to his longtime ties to a local Maryland community—he’s lived there 14 years, after initially entering illegally in 2011—even as the administration redoubled removal efforts.

It would also mean more pressure on the administration to present actual evidence of the claim that he’s a gang member. Vice President JD Vance and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt have worked themselves up into paroxysms of phony outrage in making this charge. Why don’t they want it reexamined within lawful channels?

There Are Only Two Ways To Handle Trump’s Threats

Trump operates on two simple rules:

  • For me to win, someone else has to lose; and,
  • If someone capitulates to my demands, I can still get more.

If you give in to Trump, he will be back. The latest “victim” is Colombia University. They’ve given in to Trump (and Biden) repeatedly, crushing anti-Palestinian protestors, adopting an extreme definition of anti-semitism, kicking multiple students out, executed a partial ban on wearing masks, and are to have security with arrest rights so they can crack down further on students who protest genocide.

After all that:

The Trump administration is considering placing Columbia University under a consent decree, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal, a dramatic escalation in the federal government’s crackdown on the Ivy League institution…

…The university has already accepted a series of changes demanded by the administration as a precondition for restoring $400m in federal grants and contracts the government suspended last month over allegations that the school failed to protect students from antisemitism on campus.

Needless to say, Trump hasn’t restored that 400 million.

If you give in to Trump without fighting, he assumes that there’s more left on the table. And since you’ve proven you won’t fight, he expects you won’t fight next time. He’ll keep doing this until you do fight, because that tells him how much you really have to give.

Trump’s been going after both Big Law and the Ivies, and so far most, though not all, have given in. Four major “white shoe” law firms have offered 340 million in pro bono work for Trump’s causes and promised not to oppose him.

All of them are idiots. Trump is a bully and a blackmailer. You can never “pay off” a blackmailer. They will always come back to the well for more.

You have only two choices if Trump comes after you:

  1. If Domestic, fight.
  2. If foreign, and he’s only threatening, tell him to pound sand and ignore him. If he does something, retaliate.

Trump’s not all powerful. The Supreme Court just ruled 9-0 that he has to return someone they sent to prison in El-Salvador. He’s reaching as far as he can to see how much he can get, that’s all. If you give in, “how much Trump can get” will be as much as he can take. If you fight, he’ll often just go find someone easier to take on and if he does choose to throw down, you stand a good chance of winning because he’s a bully, and at heart he’s a coward. He has no real plan, no real beliefs: there’s nothing he’s willing to go to the wall for except, perhaps, to remove people close to him who fail in their primary duty as a sycophant.

This is especially pathetic in the case of Big Law and Ivies with massive endowments. They can fight and doing so will be good for them in the long run. For law firms it shows that they have guts and no one wants a gutless lawyer. For Ivies it shows that they actually believe all that crap they spew about academic freedom.

Bear in mind that Trump’s power is a fleeting thing. He’s very likely going to lose the House and probably the Senate in 2 years and he’s done in four. There’s a small chance of him managing a coup, and a good chance he’ll try, but his antics are making him noxious not just to the citizenry but to huge chunks of powerful financial and industrial elites. Odds are he’s got his one term, and his health is bad enough that he may not even make that, though I suspect Vance would in many ways be worse.

But, again, if you give in to Trump without a fight, you’re telling there’s more he can get from you.

So fight.

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce, and sometimes even like eating. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

America Is Trying To Form An Anti-China Trade Bloc

Trump backed off on most of his tariffs after Japan sold a ton of bonds and he panicked. He replaced most of the tariffs with a blanket 10%, and kept tariffs on China and Canada (because those countries had counter-tariffed the US, supposedly.) Now the report is that what US negotiators are demanding is that in exchange for avoiding US tariffs, other countries tariff China.

It should be noted, first, that China will not back down. The way Trump is framing this is “China will come to us” and sub-voce “beg” and that’s not happening, it would be a massive loss of face for Xi and for China and China is a “face” society. So massive tariffs on both sides will continue unless the US makes the first overtures and in a face saving way. The US rates on China are 125% and the Chinese rates on America are 85%.

These are nuclear levels and are going to bring trade damn-near to a halt. China has also put export bans on a number of companies for “dual use” techs: in practice, they’ve hit Lockheed and Boeing (big military aviation companies) so hard that I’m not sure those companies will be able to build planes, the supply chain is that China-centric and there are no alternatives.

(Aside: the criminally minded will be scrambling to smuggle into the US, and fortunes will be made, as they were during Prohibition. Those who wish to reduce criminal risks can just import Chinese goods to Canada and Mexico and sell them to whomever. “I don’t know officer, I don’t ask them why they want all those machine parts. Not my business.”)

It’s hard to say how this will play out, because:

  • Lots of western countries have a hate-on for China. European and Canadian politicians, early on in Trump’s regime, had suggested “why tariff us, let’s go after China together!”
  • But… that was then, and this is now. A lot has changed in three months. No one trusts Trump to keep deals any more and China is looking mighty stable. Even if you’d really rather do business with the US, like Europe, can you expect any deal to be kept?

I’m genuinely unsure how this will play out. My personal preference would be to tell the US and Trump to pound sand: they don’t keep their deals, so you just can’t do business with them no matter what the theoretical case is. (That case is mostly that it’s hard to compete with China, their goods are so cheap, whereas the US is sclerotic so you can sell them stuff, especially if they’re in a trade war with China and can’t buy cheap: charge them 2x as much and still come in under!)

If Trump had gone for this as the start, he would have gotten it. Canada and Europe would have fallen over themselves to join in. Now? Not so sure.

There’s a lot of “Trump is a genius and there is a PLAN” going around in MAGA circles. Bullshit. If this was Trump’s actual goal, what he did made it harder to achieve rather than easier. What actually happened is that Japan jerked the bond market’s chain and Trump backed down and is trying to pivot.

It’s not a completely stupid pivot, the West isn’t competitive against Chinese manufacturing, and one way to deal with that (a bad way, but still a way) is to just cut China out of Western markets and sell over-priced goods to each other.

Years ago I said that the way geopolitics were playing out was leading to a “New Cold War” — there’s an entire category on this blog, just on that.

Crunch time has come and we’ll see if it happens, and who’s on each side. Trump’s made America’s chances of putting together a strong coalition far weaker than they should have been, but anti-China fear and a refusal to end rentierism in the West mean that we can’t, actually, compete against China, so there’s still a strong temptation to form that anti-China bloc.

If so, we’ll be the weaker side, as the USSR/Warsaw Pact was last time and we will lose the new Cold war, falling further and further behind technologically and watching as the Chinese enjoy goods we can barely even dream of, just as was true of the late Soviet Union.

Everything, and I mean everything, will be sacrificed to keep the oligarchs in power, keep making them richer and keep the flow of unearned cash pouring into every rich person’s orifices.

Update: Seems that the EU and China are in talks to end EU tariffs on electric vehicles. That sound you hear is Elon Musk puckering up to kiss his ass goodbye.

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

 

China Cuts The Legs Out Underneath The US LNG Industry

I didn’t see this coming:

In a move that stunned traders, analysts and policymakers alike, China has just announced a complete halt on all liquefied natural gas imports from the United States. A decision made abruptly with no prior indication, no phased reduction and no explanation beyond a terse statement from Beijing…

…China was one of the fastest growing markets for American LNG, importing more than four million tons annually. Cutting that overnight is more than symbolic, it’s surgical.

Early reactions have been nothing short of panic. Energy markets were jolted, LNG prices in Europe and Asia swung wildly and US energy firms reported immediate financial hits…

…Overnight, the US was eliminated from one of the world’s most lucrative gas markets worth more than US$2.4 billion a year. Let that number sink in. More than 4.4 million tons of American LNG every single year now suddenly has nowhere to go.

Ports along the Gulf Coast are already feeling the shock. Massive LNG tankers are sitting idle with nowhere to dock, no buyers to receive them. Terminal operators are scrambling to reroute shipments, but the damage is done. Revenue streams are drying up. American energy firms are haemorrhaging cash: millions of dollars in losses each day…

China has begun rerouting LNG cargoes originally meant for East Asia straight into Europe’s energy-hungry markets. The message is clear: If the US wants to weaponise trade, China will weaponise its energy strategy.

Why Europe? Because it’s vulnerable and China knows it. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been scrambling to find a replacement for Russian gas. For the past two years, the US had been the emergency supplier, shipping LNG across the Atlantic to prevent blackouts and political chaos in capitals from Berlin to Warsaw. But that relationship, built out of necessity, was never guaranteed.

And China just exposed that fragility. By stepping in with competitive LG offers at lower prices, China is capitalising on a moment of weakness. European energy firms, already strained by inflation and political pressure, are welcoming any chance to secure stable and affordable supply.

One of the major stories of the Ukraine war is how the US took advantage of the pipeline sabotage and sanctions to sell Europe natural gas. Expensive natural gas. This increased the energy cost of heavy industry and led to a lot of European, especially German factories, shuttering and moving to the US.

Win/Win. For America.

China isn’t itself an LNG exporter, but it controls a lot of the market thru long term contracts. It has an excess of what it needs, and it just signed a new contract with Australia for long term supply:

In March 2025, Australia’s energy giant Woodside Energy inked a game-changing 15-year contract with China Resources Gas, one of Beijing’s top natural gas distributors.

Under the deal, Australia will begin supplying 600,000 tons of LNG per year, starting in 2027. While the volume might not seem earth-shattering on paper, the symbolism behind the agreement is monumental…

… Australian LNG is currently 20% cheaper than US shipments largely due to proximity and lower transportation costs. It takes roughly 10 fewer days for Australian cargo to reach Chinese ports, compared to those from the US.

Australia, of course, has been rather anti-China and a big US ally, BUT cold hard cash, err, trumps that.

What’s becoming clear about this trade war is that China has gamed it out. They thought ahead, having learned lessons during the first Trump administration: they were ready. They’ve massively reduced their vulnerabilities and carefully examined America’s weaknesses, and now they’re hitting them. Hard.

This realigns American allies in Europe and Australia more towards China, it hurts the US, and it highlights the benefits of doing business with China.

 

Xi Jingping

Xi, as we discussed in our last article, has been planning for this, not just since Trump, but since he took power. He’s locked and loaded and he’s firing his guns. The more Trump doubles down, the more America will be hurt, because China needs America less than America needs China. In many cases America firms have no choice but to buy from China, there is nowhere else to get what they need, while China either has alternatives or has already written off buying from the US, as is the case with chips. To China, America is a lost cause: it can’t be relied on either as a supplier or a buyer.

If America’s effectively a write-off, well, treat it like a write-off. And that’s what China is doing.

Trump and many Americans thought that China was the vulnerable one, that China was in a weaker position than them (they made the same mistake with Canada). It isn’t. Now Europe and Japan are holding weaker hands than the US in a trade war, but here’s China actually strengthening Europe.

It is to laugh. Trump’s fundamentally incompetent, a D- player and he’s going up against Xi, who’s arguably a great statesman, and so far, Xi is ripping him a new one.

This is what actual planning and actual competence looks like: see threats in the future and get ready for them. When someone declares you their enemy, as the US has repeatedly, take them seriously.

We haven’t seen that in any Western country in at least two generations.

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

Page 1 of 456

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén